Rapaport Magazine
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Retail Bulletin

February 2008

By Rapaport
Zales Holiday Sales Drop
Zales reported total sales of $723 million for the two-month holiday period ended December 31, 2007, a 10 percent drop compared with the same period in 2006, when total sales were $804 million.

Same-store sales for the period decreased 9 percent. The jeweler expects same-store sales to decline 9 percent for its second quarter ended January 31, 2008, and second-quarter shares to earn between $1.08 and $1.13, compared to the $1.60 to $1.65 per-share earnings it predicted in November.

Tiffany Adjusts for Weak Holiday Spending
Same-store sales at Tiffany stores decreased 2 percent over the holiday season, reflecting the larger drop in consumer spending, particularly in the luxury sector. The jeweler’s shares fell 12 percent, leading to lowered profit forecasts for the fourth fiscal quarter. Annual projections were adjusted downward from $2.25 to $2.30 per share in November to $2.25 to $2.28 per share now, and Tiffany also reduced its full-year sales forecast from 15 percent to 14 percent.

Trian Fund Management, a hedge fund owned by Nelson Peltz, took advantage of Tiffany’s falling stock and bought 3.6 million more shares for approximately $132 million, increasing its overall stake in the company to 7.9 percent from 5.54 percent in February 2007.

Tiffany’s board of directors extended the expiration date of its current stock repurchase program and authorized the additional repurchase of up to $500 million of common stock, enabling the jeweler to repurchase up to $637 million of its shares through January 31, 2011. There are currently 127 million Tiffany shares outstanding.

Finlay’s Same-Store Sales Decrease
Finlay Enterprises, Inc., reported a 5.9 percent decrease in same-store sales for November and December, while its total sales increased 27 percent to $349 million during the two-month period.

The retailer now expects fourth-quarter earnings to fall in the range of $1.50 to $1.60 per share, compared with its previous forecast of $2.15 to $2.30 per share, which had been based on a same-store sales growth rate of 1.5 percent to 2.5 percent.

Birks & Mayors Same-Store Sales Fall 10 Percent
Birks & Mayors experienced a 10 percent drop in its same-store U.S. sales over the 2007 holiday season. Sales in Canada were down by 5 percent for the period.

Given these results, as well as the outlook for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2008, the luxury retailer has reduced its full-year guidance for sales and earnings before taxes, and expects net sales to increase in the midsingle-digit range.

The company reported that net sales rose 5.7 percent to $96.8 million for November and December and attributed this increase to the opening of two new U.S. stores— for a total of 71 stores altogether—and the addition of two Canadian stores affiliated with the Brinkhaus acquisition.

Neiman Marcus Sales Up in December
Neiman Marcus reported a total sales increase of 4.9 percent to $723 million for the five-week period ended December 31, 2007, compared with $689 million for the same period in 2006.

Same-store sales were up 2.9 percent to $709 million for the period. Sales through Neiman Marcus Direct increased 8.4 percent in December and revenues at the company’s specialty stores, which include Neiman Marcus and Bergdorf Goodman, were up 1.8 percent for the period.

Saks Holiday Sales Rise
Saks Incorporated reported an 0.8 percent increase in same-store sales for the five-week period ended January 5, 2008, with fine jewelry one of its best sellers.

In November and December 2007 combined, same-store sales jumped 10 percent and total sales increased 11 percent to $795 million, compared with $719 million for the two months ended December 30, 2006.

Total sales rose 0.8 percent to $448 million for the period, compared with $444 million for the five weeks ended December 30, 2006.

Macy’s Holiday Sales Decline
Macy’s, Inc., reported that same-store sales for the combined November-December holiday period declined 1.1 percent.

Total sales for the five weeks ended January 5, 2008, fell 7.4 percent from the same period last year to $4.6 billion, while same-store sales dropped 7.9 percent.

Macy’s total sales for 2007 decreased by 0.5 percent to $25.05 billion and on a same-store basis, year-to-date sales were down 1 percent. The retailer expects fourth-quarter, same-store sales to drop 1 percent to 2 percent.

J.C. Penney Jewelry Sales Down
J.C. Penney’s same-store sales for the five weeks ended January 5, 2008, were down 7.5 percent, with total sales decreasing 5.6 percent to $3.18 billion for the period. Total December sales dropped 4.5 percent to $2.8 billion.

The retailer now expects its fourth-quarter earnings to fall at the lower end of its previously predicted range of $1.65 to $1.80 per share, and its January same-store sales to decline in the midsingle-digits in both the department store and direct consumer categories.

Richemont’s Overall Sales Climb 15 Percent
Richemont reported that its jewelry store sales climbed 15 percent to $1.26 billion (EUR 863 million) in the third quarter ended December 31, 2007. Overall group sales increased 14 percent to $2.44 billion (EUR 1.67 billion) for the period.

U.S. sales growth slowed to 10 percent, with the strongest growth coming from the Asia Pacific and European regions, according to company spokespersons.

Online Sales Rise as Retail Sales Expectations Fall
Chain store sales rose just 1.9 percent for the period ended January 5, 2008, according to a survey conducted by the International Council of Shopping Centers, Inc. (ICSC). On a year-over-year basis, sales were up 1.6 percent from 2006.

In the wake of a weak holiday season, ICSC has slashed its monthly sales expectations to 0.5 percent and, should this forecast prove correct, January sales will have been at their lowest since 1996.

Online sales in the U.S., however, rose by 19 percent to $29.2 billion from November 1 through December 31, 2007, according to comScore Networks.

The highly anticipated “Cyber Monday,” November 26, ranked as the ninth-busiest shopping day of the year, with sales increasing 21 percent compared to the same day in 2006. The best day for online sales in the period was December 10, which generated $881 million in revenue, followed by December 11 at $819 million.

Article from the Rapaport Magazine - February 2008. To subscribe click here.

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